4 key dates to watch in September
September is typically a challenging month for crypto and stocks — will this year be different?
There’s never a dull moment on the blockchain. Here’s what you need to know this week:
Bitcoin is hovering below $60K. BTC ETFs have also hit a rough patch, but it’s not all bad news in this week’s market update.
September events that could impact crypto markets. From the presidential debate to the Fed’s rate-cut decision, here’s what to keep an eye on this month.
This week in numbers. The total amount of crypto ATMs in Australia, the sum raised by an early-stage crypto investor, and more stats to know.
MARKET BYTES
Bitcoin hits volatility, struggles to break past $60K
Bitcoin sank to its lowest level since early August to start the week, falling about 5% between Tuesday and Wednesday, to around $55,500, before recovering slightly. By Thursday morning, BTC was back near $56,000.
The sharp decrease came after the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index, a key economic indicator, declined for the fifth straight month, resulting in big losses in both the U.S. and Asian stock markets.
Since bitcoin hit a new all-time high in March, investor sentiment has trended lower, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index now sitting firmly in “Fear” levels, a sign that investors remain concerned about current price action. But that is only part of the picture.
Here are three other market stories to know this week…
1: Bitcoin ETFs see their worst day of trading since May
The U.S. listed spot bitcoin ETFs had more than $287 million of outflows on Tuesday, their fifth straight negative day and their worst day of outflows since May 1.
Fidelity’s spot ETF product, FBTC, led the outflows with $162.3 million of withdrawals, followed by Grayscale’s GBTC, which saw $50 million of outflows. Notably, BlackRock’s product, IBIT, has seen consecutive days without inflows for the first time ever since launching in January.
The rough start to the week comes after the ETFs collectively logged a $94.2 million outflow for August, their first monthly outflow since April.
More red candles… Ethereum spot ETFs, which launched in July, also appear to be struggling amid ETH’s worst trading month in two years, as its price hit a seven-month low near $2,100 in August. Trading volume currently sits at just 15% of the levels reached during launch week.
2: Bitcoin financing is catching on in traditional finance
Despite the volatile year for cryptocurrency markets, financial firms continue experimenting with crypto in a variety of ways, for example by using bitcoin as collateral for other financial activities.
Metaplanet, a Japanese investment adviser that has adopted bitcoin as one of its reserve currencies, recently partnered with a Tokyo-based firm to help create what it calls a “compliant corporate custody service that … offers the potential to utilize Bitcoin as collateral for financing.” Metaplanet holds around $21 million of BTC, and regularly adds to its holdings, much like Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy.
The bigger picture… In the U.S., an unclear regulatory structure has made it difficult for some firms to transact with bitcoin. But as Howard Lutnick, CEO of financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald, said recently, “If the regulatory environment was good, you will see all the traditional financial companies go head first into bitcoin.”
3: Crypto trading volumes are rising, despite gloomy sentiment
Investor sentiment might be down, but it hasn't stopped the multi-month trend of rising cryptocurrency trading volumes.
According to The Block, the monthly trading volume on centralized exchanges topped $1.2 trillion in August, up nearly 7% from the month prior. (Coinbase is one of the centralized exchanges included in The Block’s data). In North America, traders were especially active in August, with the region notching $166 billion in trading volume last month, a 21.6% jump from the month prior.
A rising tide? Alongside volumes, the stablecoin market is also growing quickly, with stablecoins setting a new all-time high just last week. Analysts suggest that a rising stablecoin market along with growing trading volumes can be a sign of new capital entering the cryptocurrency market and growing confidence.
PUT IT ON THE CAL
4 key dates that could shape markets in September
There’s no sugarcoating it: September is, historically, a challenging month for both crypto and stocks, as markets reawaken from summer vacation and fund managers begin rebalancing portfolios as Q3 comes to a close and Q4 looms.
But this September isn’t exactly typical. Against the backdrop of a pivotal U.S. election season entering its final stretch, professional and individual traders are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated interest-rate cut decision in two weeks, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in August that “the time has come” for a reduction. But before that arrives, there's a bevy of new economic data that could factor into the central bank’s rate cut plans.
To help keep track of everything that’s happening, we’re highlighting some key dates and events to watch this month. Let's dive in:
September 6: August jobs report
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release their latest “Employment Situation” report, which will reflect how many jobs the U.S. economy added in August and the current unemployment rate — a growing concern for the Fed.
As Bloomberg explains, the jobs report, by providing a key insight into the health of the economy, “will probably determine” how big the Fed’s rate reduction will be. Analysts expect either a 0.25% or 0.50% reduction from current levels.
As interest rates fall and money becomes less expensive to borrow, more capital could flow into crypto and high-growth assets, which some analysts say could result in rising prices.
July’s report indicated a weaker-than-expected 114,000 jobs added, which saw BTC sink 5.4% as slowdown fears gripped markets. For August, Bloomberg is forecasting 163,000 added jobs.
September 10: U.S. presidential debate
Presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are expected to face each other at their first debate next Tuesday, and while crypto wasn’t mentioned in the previous debate between President Biden and Trump in June, digital assets have become an increasingly important election topic for both parties.
Earlier this year, Trump spoke at the 2024 BItcoin Conference, and told the audience he would make America the “crypto capital of the planet,” “appoint a new SEC chairman,” and that under his administration, the U.S. would “keep 100% of all the bitcoin the U.S. government currently holds or acquires into the future.”
Meanwhile, the crypto industry is reportedly anticipating a “reset” with Vice President Harris, and during an August virtual town hall for Democratic crypto supporters, Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer pledged to pursue crypto legislation. “My goal when it comes to crypto regulation is this: I want to bring members on both sides of the aisle here in the Senate together,” Schumer said.
September 11: August inflation report
August’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) readout will offer the latest inflation data across a wide basket of goods in the U.S. As of Wednesday, The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is anticipating the annual inflation rate to come in at 2.56%, down from 2.9% in July, and trending toward the Fed’s 2% goal.
The CPI report could help the Fed solidify its rate-cut plans, though as Forbes notes, jobs numbers could be the bigger factor in the Fed’s thinking, because while inflation data is generally improving, “jobs data is becoming more of a concern. Unemployment has moved up from relatively low levels over the past year.”
September 18: The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision
The Fed’s next policy meeting is widely anticipated to announce the beginning of interest-rate cuts, which since July 2023 have sat in the 5.25% to 5.50% range, the highest levels since 2001.
The biggest unknown about the expected rate reduction: How big could the Fed’s first cut be? The majority of institutional analysts anticipate a 0.25% cut, but several firms — including Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, and Wells Fargo — are forecasting a larger 0.50% cut.
Why might the different-sized cuts matter? As Bitfinex analysts explained to CoinDesk, “a 25 basis point rate cut would likely mark the beginning of a standard rate-cutting cycle, which could lead to long-term price appreciation for BTC as recession fears ease.”
But a 50 basis point reduction could be seen as more drastic, signaling “growing concerns of an oncoming recession and more pain for asset prices.”
The bottom line…
While September has historically been a rocky month for crypto, the good news is that October has a much better track record.
“October has the strongest bullish seasonality, with bitcoin showing positive returns and an average gain of 22.9% in eight out of the last nine Octobers,” QCP Capital analysts noted in The Block.
NUMBERS TO KNOW
$75 million
The amount raised by Robot Ventures for its latest venture-capital fund — the early-stage crypto investor has previously invested in DeFi projects such as Lido and EigenLayer. As Bloomberg notes, “Crypto venture investing has recovered this year with token prices up significantly since their low point nearly two years ago.”
1,200
The approximate number of crypto ATMs in Australia, representing a 16-fold increase from just two years ago, when there were just 73. While the United States has the vast majority of crypto ATMs (roughly 32,000), Australia is the fastest-growing market for the machines, reports Bloomberg.
15%
The approximate amount that the market cap of the top 14 publicly listed bitcoin miners has fallen in the past month. Only three miners outperformed bitcoin in that span, according to J.P. Morgan, and mining profitability has fallen to its lowest level on record.
TOKEN TRIVIA
What percent of bitcoin’s total supply has already been mined?
A
60%
B
72%
C
86%
D
94%
Find the answer below.
Trivia Answer
D
94%
